Trump has been saying for weeks a final deal to end the US-Israel war on Iran is “imminent”
By Nicole Jansezian
The United States and Iran announced a long-awaited agreement, something many found hard to believe until both sides finally declared it late Sunday night — or early Monday morning, depending on the time zones of both Tehran and DC.
U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly said that a deal was imminent between the America and Iran since the ceasefire went into effect in April. One news outlet counted 39 such statements.
We all lost count along the way.
Lately, Trump insisted it be finalized that very day (which happened to be his 80th birthday).
But tensions between Israel and Hezbollah presented one last threat to blow up the deal: Hezbollah drones landed in Israeli territory and Israel responded with a strike on a Hezbollah target in Beirut on Sunday.
After Israel and Hezbollah dropped their munitions, Trump dropped some F-bombs in a call with Israeli journalist Barak Ravid.
“Why did Bibi have to do a fucking attack? I was so pissed off. I let him know. He has no fucking judgement. I let him know that,” Trump said about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Axios reported.
Trump also claimed that he persuaded Iran to forgo a revenge attack on Israel.
Nevertheless, once all the drama subsided, the two sides confirmed that the proposed Memorandum of Understanding is scheduled to be signed on Friday in Switzerland.
REACTIONS
Leaders in the Islamic Republic claimed victory. Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said the “wretched American and Zionist enemies have no choice but to accept defeat and surrender.”
Trump portrays it as a major diplomatic success and a stronger alternative to the 2015 nuclear agreement negotiated under President Barack Obama. Trump argues his framework would permanently block Iran’s path to nuclear weapons while improving relations between Washington and Tehran.
“I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade,” the president wrote on Truth Social. “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”
In Israel, almost all analysts and political figures say the deal is bad for the Jewish state particularly because it accepts Iran’s demand to link the agreement to Israel’s war with Hezbollah.
Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israel’s policy remains unchanged: “The IDF will remain in security zones in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza — without a time limit — in order to defend the border and Israeli communities from there against jihadist elements.”
Netanyahu hasn’t said a word yet.
MAIN POINTS
Now, let’s get into the deal, but first a few important points:
- The full text has not been released and can only be pieced together by statements from each side at the moment.
- This is not an end to the war, but a 60-day extension of the ceasefire during which the sides must hammer out even more controversial topics such as the nuclear question.
Former Mossad official Sima Shine noted, while “70% of the MOU can be understood… sometimes the devil is in the details.”
Without 100% confirmation of the details, here’s what we can assume:
- The nuclear issue: This topic will be negotiated over the next 60 days. As Shine pointed out, “Iran doesn’t have any interest in having an agreement,” nor giving up its nuclear quest. She expects (at least) another 60-day extension after the MOU expires.
- Strait of Hormuz reopening: the U.S. Navy blockade removed
- Hezbollah-Israel: fighting must stop as part of the framework
WIN-LOSS COLUMN
So who wins? Who loses?
Winners: Iran, Qatar, Pakistan
Iran will soon feel the full relief of sanctions, may get its frozen sums of money and its capability to export oil. Iran also gains regional influence.
Pakistan stepped into the role of mediator despite vested interests in Iran.
Qatar was in Tehran for the final hours of the negotiations, It remains to be seen what it is walking away with.
Shine said: “In all the disputes in the Middle East, we find the Qataris — and not only we find them again but they were sitting in Tehran when Iranians said they will not sign the MOU because of the Israel attack in the Dahieh” in Beirut.
Tie: U.S., the Gulf
Shine pointed out that relations between Iran and the Gulf states will change despite the fact that the Islamic Regime attacked the Gulf, specifically the United Arab Emirates, harder than any other region.
“The Gulf states understand that they don’t have an alternative to their neighbor, their super regional superpower, neighbor, Iran,” she said. “They will try to find a ways to improve relations, even though no one of them will believe the Iranians… but still, there is a need to compensate this way or the other, and to come to terms between the two.”
The U.S. lost face in the Middle East, but can be forgiven since the MOU has driven oil prices down.
Losers: Lebanon, Israel, the Iranian people
This agreement effectively removes Israel’s ability to pound Hezbollah — much to the chagrin of Israelis in northern border communities and the Lebanese government.
Lebanon has been ripe for a change in its government, the extrication of Hezbollah from its system and an agreement with Israel. Lebanon was likely leaning on Israel to disarm Hezbollah since it cannot do so with its own military.
In fact, Iran gains a legitimate role in Lebanon — even as Washington hosts Beirut and Jerusalem for normalization talks aimed at cutting out Hezbollah.
Israelis are three months away from elections, hence you can expect this MOU to play a major role in campaigning. Some of Netanyahu’s own ministers will go against the agreement, and even Trump, while the sitting prime minister will have to navigate a diplomatic tightrope.
Meanwhile, the Iranians who were promised “help is on the way” and were hoping for a reprieve from their tyrannical leaders, are on their own again.
This video was filmed a few hours before the parties announced the MOU: