Syria has Fallen. Here’s how that Impacts the Neighborhood.
We don’t like slow news days in the Middle East. So, just as the 14 months long war between Israel and Hezbollah drew to a close with a Nov. 27 ceasefire, several groups in Syria began marauding from north to south and south to north to overthrow Basher Al-Assad’s regime.
Within two short weeks, Damascus had fallen. The 50+-year Assad rule was over.
While many are cheering on the rebel takeover of Syria, this regime change could mean instability—and danger—for the region.
A couple of questions here:
First, how was this not on anyone’s radar? I’m not alleging that no intel service saw this coming. Surely someone did. Somewhere. But it was nowhere in the public dialogue. It was a shock to most of the world who struggled to even understand the difference between the several groups that went into Syria.
Second, who is really behind this? We know Turkey is supporting some of the groups. But does the timing mean anything (since there is no such thing as a coincidence in politics)? This took off right after the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire went into effect and the significant weakening of Hezbollah (another of the rebels’ adversaries).
Some suggest the U.S. and Israel are behind the regime change. But if that’s the case, why was Israel seemingly caught by surprise at the rapid fall of Damascus?
Third, is this simply Sunni vs. Shia? Or deeper than the broad Islamic denominational angst?
Since the civil war, Syria has been the playground for regional powers including Iran, Russia, the U.S. and to some extent Israel.
WHO ARE THE REBELS?
One group—an al Qaeda breakaway—Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) is led by Abu Mohamed al Jolani who has fast become a household name. The U.S. has a $10 million bounty on his head, wanted for war crimes.
You should look him up. He has a hardline extremist background, but is projecting moderation now. Jolani is no saint, but he has reassured minorities that they will be safe under his administration.
Another one of the groups is the Syrian National Army, backed by Turkey. Other groups (about six of them) include combatants from Central Asia and non-Syrian Arabs.
Here are some questions we should be asking:
Now that the rebels took over, will they enact a strict interpretation of Sharia law?
How will ethnic groups and religious minorities be treated?
Will this spark a new wave of refugees ranging from Christians, Armenians and Kurds? And will Hezbollah members who fled Lebanon during the war with Israel now find themselves on the bad side of the new bosses in Syria?
LET’S PAN OUT AND LOOK AT THE WIDER REGION
- Iran loses its puppet state, not to mention Syria was its pipeline to arm and reinforce Hezbollah. Will this blow spark a revolution against he Ayatollah in Tehran
- Turkey expands it reach and influence.
- Russia retracts.
- Jordan sealed its border against rebel and refugee spillover but some speculate whether the Arab winter could extend to the Hashemite Kingdom. An unstable Jordan will have negative ramifications in Israel.
- Iraq is in danger of copycat Sunni groups resurrecting ISIS, carrying out terror attacks.
- Lebanon right now is weakened, however so is Hezbollah—the (Iranian-backed) terror group entrenched on the souther border. Hezbollah is an enemy of the rebels. But now, who will fill the vacuum? Will a strong Lebanese government evolve or will the rebels target Lebanon next and take advantage of instability created during the war?
- Israel initially said it will not interfere but it immediately deployed troops on the Syrian border, attacked weapons sites and has now occupied territory from the border all the way to the outskirts of Damascus.
LET’S ZOOM IN ON LEBANON
I wrote an article about Lebanon and its chances to rehabilitate under the Trump administration. You can read that here.
Hezbollah, still based in Lebanon and now somewhat weakened by its war with Israel, condemned the rebels. In fact the new general secretary Naim Qassem called the rebels “terrorists.” Pause. Reread. Not that they aren’t also terrorists, but pot+kettle+black comes to mind.
The Lebanese army which is now tasked with filling the Hezbollah void in the south as per the ceasefire, will also be alert on its borders with Syria both to the east and north against any possible aggression.
THE DISTANCE FROM DAMASCUS TO JERUSALEM
The initial euphoria coming from Israelis who are thrilled by Assad’s fall and the end of Iran’s stranglehold on Syria is dangerously myopic, in my opinion.
Aside from diving into the rebels’ religious and political opinions on Israel, let’s look at the facts on the ground.
The Israeli military has moved into southern Syria and has been striking dozens of targets, primarily weapons depots, in Syria. The air force has done this without any opposition either from the rebels or the world actually. As far as anyone knows, there have been no deaths either. (Interesting to note that Israel obviously has a list of targets and knows exactly where they are.)
These rebels are no friends of Israel—and despite initial overtures by the leadership to the Jewish state and promises of territorial integrity, the rank-and-file soldiers are already talking about liberating Al Aqsa and the Palestinians.
Also, the rebels (Sunni Muslims) are closer to Hamas (Sunni) ideologically. Hamas congratulated the rebels—a slap in the face to Hezbollah (Shia), the terror group that joined Hamas in its war on Israel from Oct. 8, 2023. Hezbollah took Assad’s side against the rebels during the Civil War and made deadly enemies of the rebels (many of whom praised Israel for targeted attacks on Hezbollah’s leadership a few months ago).
But the who that is is behind the rebels (or some of them) lends credence to the concern over Jerusalem: Turkey.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has claimed that “Jerusalem is our city” and has made no secret of his desire to restore the Ottoman Empire’s glory, and ultimately, control of the Temple Mount.
He’s never been closer.
