Have Hezbollah’s military capabilities been disabled following the beeper explosions?
More than 4,000 people were injured all across Lebanon on Tuesday as pagers simultaneously exploded in what appears to be a highly sophisticated cyber attack on Hezbollah.
This has to be one of the most bizarre occurrences in this war and perhaps even more shocking in the scope and execution than the assassination of the late Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil.
At 3:30 p.m. local time in what appears to be a coordinated on Hezbollah operatives who used beepers to communicate because they are — or were — more secure than smart phones.
No one has claimed credit, but Hezbollah and its allies (Iran, Hamas) blamed Israel and vowed revenge.
But the question now is whether they have the capability to exact revenge right now.
The numbers are still being tallied, but even at a glance they are staggering. More than 4,000 injured. More than 100 hospitals received patients across the country. Nine people were killed and many are in critical condition. Injuries range from blindness, loss of fingers and hands and stomach injuries.
Many are reporting that even the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, or his bodyguards, were injured in this attack. Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasrallah appears to have been unscathed, according to a Hezbollah statement.
The son of a Lebanese parliament member, Ali Ammar, was killed.
An 8-year-old girl was also killed, the AP reported.
The Lebanon Ministry of Education canceled school for Wednesday. Airlines began canceling flights to Israel in anticipation of a response from Hezbollah or its allies, including in Iraq where one group already offered its assistance in anything Hezbollah needs.
“We are fully prepared to go with them to the end, and to send fighters, equipment, and support, whether on the technical or logistical level,” the Kataeb Hezbollah militia said in a statement.
WHO DID IT?
No one has claimed credit for the attack but fingers are gin pointed at Israel. Israel is usually presumed to be behind targeted assassinations on Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon and Syria. Many blamed Israel for the death of Iran’s top nuclear scientists a few years ago in Iran. And then, most recently, there was the bomb that went off in Haniyeh’s hotel room while he slept.
Israel did claim credit for the killing of Fuad Shukr, a top Hezbollah commander, in Lebanon just hours before Haniyeh’s death. He was killed in a precision strike on the building he was in at the time.
What was notable about Shukr’s death was that Israel instantly claimed responsibility and also emphatically confirmed his death hours before Hezbollah claimed to have even identified his body under the building’s rubble.
HOW WAS THE ATTACK CARRIED OUT?
So how does one get hundreds or thousands of beepers to explode at the same time? How many devices were there—in other words, how many pagers actually exploded and how many of the injuries were people in the vicinity?
Lebanese media is reporting chaos and anger across the nation. People have lined up to donate blood. One report in Al Jazeera said that the devices were pre-installed with 20 grams of explosives and that they were imported five months ago.
But even so, how are they remotely activated to explode simultaneously? Was there a call or message that activated it? Was it really a pre-rigged device and if so, how was it sold to Hezbollah?
Was the time and date chosen in advance? Or did the beepers overheat at the same time, by chance?
By the way, Syrian sources are reporting that around 50 Hezbollah operatives there were injured as well.
WHAT NOW?
So far no changes in safety instructions in Israel though some foreign airlines have voted with their feet (or wings).
Foreign nations have urged their citizens to leave Lebanon if they haven’t done so already.
As for Israeli politics, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant may have earned some job security which was in question a mere 24 hours before the attack. The headlines were full of (more than) speculation that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was on the brink of firing the DM and offering his position to Gideon Saar in exchange for his party leaving the opposition and joining Bibi’s coalition.
Now it seems irresponsible to switch the top defense job while awaiting revenge from your northern nemesis.
** Another random note: While Lebanese are angry over the violation on there soil, some opposition fighters in Syria handed out sweets celebrating the attack on Hezbollah.
** Not saying Israel did it. But IF Israel can accomplish something like this, many are asking, how did it miss the thousands of Hamas terrorists literally bulldozing a fence on their own border on Oct. 7?